With all this doom and economic analysis, are we risking a soft landing, in the pursuit of media grabbing headlines?
There’s a risk in talking about the future economy; if you say any prediction enough times people will start to believe you. But the interesting question is whether it is possible to ‘think’ an economy into a recession? In 1958 Alban W. Phillips published an economic paper in which he proposed that unemployment rates were empirically linked to inflation. He creatively called this the Phillips curve. A variant of his work is still used by Governments today to construct financial planning models. But why the history lesson I hear you ask?
Well, the amended “Phillips” curve links peoples expectation of inflation (and hence interest rates) with unemployment. So, with every week of faltering stock markets, stalling house prices and interest rate adjustments we receive all pervasive media analysis, predicting gloom right around the corner. And with every week, we think ourselves closer to a recession hit environment.
For Freelance PR and Marketing professionals this isn’t good news.
One challenge faces us, and it lies at the heart of effective communications. Most organisations cut advertising and PR budgets with the first whiff of a recession. My argument is that in economically tough times it’s more important than ever to resource PR and marketing activities, when trading is pinched by more frugal consumer spending. Challenge number one is to educate those providing your freelance contracts that now is the time to spend whilst competitors don’t. This is option number one and it’s the most likely way to ensure that that any possible trading to be had on the high street happens on your doorstep.
A more sizeable challenge is perhaps to change the collective group think that Alban Phillips et al observed. This is option two, and you’ll have to convince people that just because everyone’s talking about a recession, doesn’t actually mean that it’s going to happen.
However admirable it might to solve your freelance employment problems by tackling option two, a more feasible plan is probably to have a go at option one first. Good luck!
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